When you think of “non-aligned” countries, you probably picture a bunch of countries standing around awkwardly, unsure of who to hang out with. But don’t be fooled by their lack of group cohesion – these countries are becoming more important by the day. India and Saudi Arabia are making big deals, and they want a bigger say in global affairs. That being said, they’re still not going to start acting as a single bloc anytime soon. It’s like herding cats, honestly. But if you want to understand why the oil price is going up or how supply chains are being remade, you better pay attention. These non-aligned countries are becoming a bigger part of the equation every day. It’s like a big game of Clue, except instead of finding out who the killer is, you’re trying to figure out who will prevail in the battle for global influence.
Let’s take a look back in time to the origins of non-alignment. It started as an alliance of developing states that wanted to assert their sovereignty in the face of rising tensions between America and the Soviet Union. But as time went on, the movement turned into anti-Americanism and grandstanding. They didn’t have military clout, economic heft, or even a presence in the tech and finance industries. By the time the Cold War ended, they were basically irrelevant. It’s like they showed up to the party just as the lights were being turned on.
At first glance, it might not seem like the non-aligned countries have a lot in common. Brazil and India are both huge democracies, but what else do they have in common with a cash-rich monarchy like Qatar? They still rely on the West, China, and Russia for technology and trade mostly in greenbacks. But don’t count them out just yet. The non-aligned countries are rising in economic power. The 25 largest non-aligned economies (aka the “transactional-25”) account for 45% of the world’s population and have seen their share of global GDP rise from 11% to 18%. It’s like they’re all eating their spinach and getting big and strong.
These non-aligned countries aren’t just in it for themselves, though. They want to trade freely with everyone and profit as supply chains are restructured away from China. They may have limited confidence in institutions like the UN or IMF, but they’re not opposed to working together. OPEC isn’t afraid to cut production, and Brazil’s president wants to form a “peace club” to end the Ukraine war. India is even trying to get involved with the G20 to lobby for the global south. It’s like everyone is trying to get in on the cool kids’ table.
As these non-aligned countries gain more power, the superpowers are vying for their attention. China thinks they’re pretty easy to manipulate, but they’re about to find out that might doesn’t make right. Authoritarian China’s soft power has its limits, and it’s not like everyone wants to move to Beijing just because they took some money. The West needs to step up their game and resist turning into their autocratic opponents. They need to offer a more flexible network of security relationships, maybe even some climate finance. It’s like they’re trying to become the cool parents that everyone wants to hang out with.
The emerging world order may be far from America’s unipolar moment of the 90s, but the West can still compete for influence. There are over 4 billion people who are eager to see what they have to offer. It’s like it’s time for the West to step up and show everyone what they’ve got. Who knows, they might even get invited to sit at the cool kids’ table.
