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“Intelligence leaks: both a party and a panic, declares Thomas Rid”

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Oh boy, here we go again! As if we haven’t seen enough mega-leaks in the past decade, we’re now dealing with another one. This time, it’s on Discord, the messaging platform of choice for gamers and conspiracy theorists alike. And you won’t believe where the initial leaker was suspected to be from – an American military base! Who would have thought a gun enthusiast could wreak so much havoc?

According to Aric Toler of Bellingcat, an investigative group, the leaker uploaded “hundreds and hundreds” of documents to the Discord channel. And get this, most media organisations reporting on the leaks only have access to about 50 of them. Sounds like they need to up their Discord game.

Anyway, about 20 pages are so-called “serial reports” – you know, those super concise one-paragraph missives on world events from multiple intelligence agencies. The rest of the documents are maps and tactical updates about the war in Ukraine, some of which have “dazzling levels of detail”. Well, if you’re going to leak something, might as well make it dazzling, right?

Now, mega-leaks like these always have two effects. They do damage, sometimes catastrophic damage, but they also offer an opportunity to advance the conversation about intelligence. Talk about a silver lining! These leaks have damaged American intelligence in the short run, but improved it in the long run. I guess there’s always a light at the end of the tunnel.

But assessing the damage caused by this particular leak is no laughing matter. It’s probably safe to assume that it’s very bad. The disclosures will harm capabilities, technical access and human sources, and allied relationships. Even South Korea got insulted! And let’s not forget the battlefield – some Ukrainian weaknesses are now exposed. Yikes.

So, how do governments stop these leaks from happening? Well, they can’t eliminate the risk, but they can manage it. One way is to over-classify. The more documents that are classified “top secret”, the more this level of protection is watered down. That just sounds like common sense, doesn’t it?

Another issue is over-clearance. In 2019, 1.25 million Americans had “top secret” security clearance, and another 1.7 million had “secret” clearance. That’s so many people, the concept has lost much of its meaning as a filter. Are we sure none of them are secretly cats just playing with classified information?

Let’s not forget how classified information gets leaked. Apparently, CD-drives, USB devices, and printers have all been used in the past decade to exfiltrate information. Maybe we should just unplug everything and see what happens? Just kidding, but in all seriousness, the government needs to do more to prevent leaks and punish leakers harshly.

But, once a leak happens, intelligence agencies should immediately shift gears – first minimise damage, then maximise utility. And guess what? The mega-leaks of the past decade had a transformative effect on the culture and practice of intelligence. Private sector “threat hunters” in big tech firms pored over the leaks in great detail and learned quite a bit. Oopsie?

And it’s not just the private sector that learned from these leaks. The intelligence agencies of the Five Eyes showed their private counterparts the art of the possible. They learned about truly advanced capabilities, how to operate stealthily, and how to unmask others doing so. And now they can spot Western intelligence agencies masquerading as “threat actors”. Maybe next they’ll spot Bigfoot or the Loch Ness Monster?

But wait, there’s more! The expert conversation on intelligence is much better informed as a result of these leaks. And the internet is even more secure because of them. Stronger encryption, anyone? Snowden leaks, anyone?

But you know what’s crazy? Even though these leaked files have transformed intelligence, they’re still treated like forbidden literature in Washington. And American regulations are agency-specific, but most cleared personnel and contractors believe they’re not allowed to see or possess material that remains classified. Come on guys, it’s okay to learn from our mistakes.

In conclusion, the world’s strongest intelligence community needs to work in an open society, not a closed one. And let’s hope the polygrapher isn’t too upset about all this leaked information. Maybe they just need to learn how to laugh and take a joke.

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