There once was a belief that the abortion issue might make Republican candidates as extinct as the dinosaurs. However, we must consider some other less prehistoric factors, such as the fact that Kelly lost by double digits in his 2020 Supreme Court bid, too. It’s like déjà vu! Interestingly, according to a little university you may have heard of – the University of Virginia, Kelly lost the same counties in 2023 as he did in 2020. Only Trempealeau county changed teams, and it went to Kelly’s side this time! Honestly, we should consider whether it was just Kelly’s general unpopularity that caused his defeat. Yikes!

So, there was also a special election in a suburban Milwaukee district on the same day. This district has more degrees than a thermometer, but that hadn’t stopped it leaning towards Republicans lately. One might think voters there would freak out over abortion and ditch the GOP, but the Republican candidate, Dan Knodl, won by almost two whole points despite his Democratic opponent spending more money than Scrooge McDuck.

Now, this ain’t to say that abortion isn’t a bit of a hurdle for Republicans. It energizes Democratic voters and donations, like caffeine for political activists. But wait, there’s more! In Georgia, Republican Governor Brian Kemp signed a “fetal heartbeat” bill in 2019 and faced off against Dem superstar Stacey Abrams in a rematch. He won by nearly 8 points! What does this teach us? Well, that Republicans can still win in swing states if they play their cards right.

However, dear reader, don’t expect the massive turnout for the Wisconsin race to give Democrats the same boost in a general election. *Insert dramatic music here* Turns out, voter turnout varies with education, and since Democrats are now the cool kids on the college-educated block, they’ve got an advantage in midterm election years – but not-so-much in presidential ones. So, let’s not go assuming everything that happens in a low-turnout election will play out the same in bigger elections.

So, what’s the moral of this story? Democrats should definitely keep dancing around the abortion rights issue – they’re doing the cha-cha with their voters and getting their wallets out. As for Republicans, well, maybe they can find the sweet spot in their approach to the topic while avoiding triggering a mass exodus. Both parties must remember that the abortion issue isn’t some magical potion that will grant them victory. Keep it cool, folks, and remember: politics is a more complex game than just the abortion debate.