Well, well, well, look who’s here! The House select committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had a hearing on Feb. 28, and boy did they have some things to say! Committee chairman claims that the committee was an “existential struggle over what life will look like in the 21st century, and the most fundamental freedoms are at stake.” Oh my goodness, can we please have a little bit of drama here?
The leading China hawk, Gallagher claimed that the CCP is focused on its exhilarating vision of the future—a world filled with techno-totalitarian surveillance states where human rights are subordinate to the whims of the party. While this might sound like some plot from James Bond, there isn’t much evidence to suggest that they want to export their system of oppression worldwide. Gallagher’s vision is just a modern update of the old Cold War paranoia about a supposed Soviet plot to rule the world. Yawn.
However, Gallagher is right that the United States and China are in a battle of the fittest, because this new cold war, like the original Cold War with the Soviet Union, has the potential to turn into a nuclear conflict. Uh oh, nuclear war, anyone? That’s not something we want to mess around with. This is a danger that China hawks—and the U.S. public in general—do not pay enough attention to. So let’s pay attention, people!
“It seems odd that war with China over Taiwan seems like a comfortable assumption for so many when the U.S. and NATO remain cautious about Russia’s war in Ukraine precisely because of the perceived risk of nuclear escalation,” says John K. Culver, a CIA veteran and former national intelligence officer for East Asia. Well, when you put it that way, it does seem a bit odd. Shouldn’t people be worried about the risk of nuclear escalation?
Well, let’s not get too worked up just yet. Even the worst-case scenarios about China seem too sanguine about the outcome of a conflict. After all, House Republicans have recently taken part in a U.S.-China war game organized by retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery. Phew, at least it was organized by a Rear Admiral and not just some random person on the street. The game shows China having made progress with Taiwan, but not having defeated the Taiwan Army. The United States, on the other hand, suffered significant casualties, and Taiwan experienced some terrible casualties. The game didn’t escalate to a nuclear war—yet. So maybe we are okay?
The lack of a nuclear exchange is quite common in most U.S.-China war games—at least those that are conducted at an unclassified level. (A senior defense official told me this is no longer the case with top-secret Pentagon war games.) So don’t worry, we are not the only ones being naive here. But in all seriousness, we should worry about nuclear escalation because China is in the midst of a quick nuclear buildup with the latest Pentagon report on Chinese military power projecting that its nuclear stockpile will grow from 400 warheads today to 1,500 warheads by 2035. That’s a lot of warheads!
The risk of nuclear escalation is high because, as a senior U.S. admiral explained, attacking just Chinese ships at sea and Chinese aircraft in the skies would not win a war over Taiwan. So the United States could find itself compelled, as a matter of military necessity, to attack bases in China. But then China, in turn, could strike U.S. bases all over the world. (Even Hawaii and the West Coast!) So what are we going to do? Throw a massive pillow fight?
For a sense of how destructive a war with China could be, read “2034: A Novel of the Next World War.” It’s written by retired Admiral James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander. Spoiler alert—it ends with nuclear devastation in both countries. Oh great, well at least, we know how it ends then.
So what can we do? Don’t kowtow to Beijing or abandon Taiwan. Instead, we need to pay attention to the dangers of blundering into war with China. The United States should continue to support Taiwan and deter China, but at the same time, keep lines of communication open and avoid needless provocations. And by that, we mean, let’s not recognize Taiwan’s independence because that’s a fast-track to World War III. So let’s play nice and keep our heads on straight.

Serious News: washingtonpost