Do you think Wisconsin is in the bag for the Democrats? I wouldn’t be too sure. But hey, the Dems are feeling pretty confident lately. Why, you might ask? Well, it’s all because they believe Trump will be the GOP nominee. Yeah, Trump. The guy who loves Twitter more than he loves his own hair. And I gotta admit, he’s been polling pretty well in Republican primaries. Apparently, his New York indictment has made him even more popular. Who knew that getting indicted would boost your standing with voters?
But hold on to your toadstools, folks. Just because Trump is popular with Republicans now, doesn’t mean he’ll be their nominee come election time. Republicans still aren’t entirely stoked about him. Back when he was president, his “strongly favorable” rating was around 70 percent. Now, only about a third of Republicans describe themselves as Trump-first voters. Half of Republicans used to say that when he was actually in office. So, it’s not a guarantee that Trump will be the anointed one this time around.
Who else could challenge Biden? Well, there’s always Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He hasn’t officially declared his candidacy, but he might in May. Could he beat Biden? Maybe. What would his coalition look like? Who knows. But we do know that Biden has his weaknesses. According to a recent CNN poll, only 37 percent of people approve of his job helping the middle class, while 62 percent disapprove. That’s a net negative rating of 25 points. Yikes. And among White non-college-educated voters, his net negative rating is an eye-popping 51 points. Double yikes. Meanwhile, DeSantis is also performing well in trial polls. He’s even ahead of Biden in the RealClearPolitics running average by a couple of points. Could we see a Gov. DeSantis someday? Possibly.
DeSantis has been pushing hard on culture war issues with his “war on woke” campaign. Basically, he wants to restrict discussions of gender and sexuality issues in public schools and universities. This is an obvious play for hard-right and evangelical voters, but it might appeal to non-college-educated voters, too. College-educated Democrats see these moves as authoritarian or fascist, but who cares about them, am I right? According to two recent polls, DeSantis has about a 12-point advantage over Biden among non-college-educated voters. Now, that might not sound impressive, but it’s actually better than Trump’s modest 4-point lead among the same group in 2020. Who needs college anyway, am I right?
Some smarty-pants political analysts have modeled what might happen if DeSantis improves Republican support among working-class voters by 5 points. According to their calculations, the GOP would win a solid 312-226 electoral vote majority in 2024. Yep, you read that right. DeSantis could turn some key states red, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. So, don’t count this guy out just because he’s not as famous as Trump. He could be trouble.
What about Hispanic voters, you ask? Well, that’s a good question. In March polls, DeSantis was losing Hispanics by just 7 points to Biden, compared to Trump’s 25-point deficit in 2020. That’s a difference of 18 points, in case you’re bad at math. And in the 2022 gubernatorial election in Florida, DeSantis carried the Hispanic vote by 13 points. He even won heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County, which is usually a Democratic stronghold. If DeSantis can keep up this momentum, he might be able to make some states that we thought were safely blue turn red. Which would be a bummer for the Dems, obviously.
So, can DeSantis really pull off a win against Biden? Who knows. The race has hardly even started. But some of DeSantis’s donors are already having second thoughts about him, so that should make the Dems feel a little better. Then again, they can’t afford to get too comfy. They need to take DeSantis seriously and start planning accordingly. After all, there’s no guarantee that Trump will be back in the White House in 2024. But DeSantis? That’s a real possibility.
Serious News: washingtonpost
