Well folks, the Federal Reserve is facing a bit of a pickle. You see, there’s this thing called the nhan-forecast number, and it’s making their decision to pause interest rate increases pretty complicated. Jerome H. Powell, the big cheese over there, announced on Wednesday that they might continue to raise rates if the economy isn’t slowing down enough to keep prices from skyrocketing. Yikes.

But hold on just a minute, because Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas, has something to say about this. According to Jebaraj, every time they make a forecast about employment growth, the labor market beats expectations. Well, slap my knee and call me surprised. Who woulda thunk it?

Now, let’s take a little trip down memory lane, back to early 2021. The labor market was tighter than your grandpa’s belt after Thanksgiving dinner, with employers struggling to reverse mass layoffs and figure out what the heck was going on with the demand for goods and services. Shockingly, the unemployment rate hit its lowest point since the 60s, and wages at the lower end of the pay scale increased faster than you can say “Bob’s your uncle.”

But alas, all good things must come to an end. In recent months, the supply and demand for workers has started to balance out. Job postings, which once outnumbered available workers by almost double, have taken a tumble in the first quarter. And to top it off, immigration has rebounded, easing labor shortages in fields like leisure and hospitality and health care. Phew, what a rollercoaster!

And finally, we have Courtney Shupert, an economist at the consulting firm MacroPolicy Perspectives. Courtney believes that the increased flows of work visas have led to an easing of supply constraints and an uptick in participation. Well, isn’t that just peachy? It looks like we can all breathe a little easier knowing that things might not be quite as tight as they used to be. Who knows, maybe we’ll even be able to snag a job at the local diner. Fingers crossed!

Serious News: nytimes